What Drives the Success of Trading Card Box Breaks?

A box break is a live-streamed event where an online host or ‘breaker’ breaks open a case of sports cards or reveals other memorabilia live online. Before a conversation with Ryan Hockensmith at ESPN, I knew very little about the rising enthusiasm for box breaking. With trading card box breaks, participants can buy in by purchasing spots from the breaker. Purchasing spots can be for a team or a place in the selection order. Also known as group breaks, popularity has surged in recent years among sports card collectors. It is a mash-up of the long-standing hobby of sports card collecting with the trend of unboxing videos on YouTube with Las Vegas thrown in. The trend is so popular that there are box breaks for kids, albeit the ones I saw were really unboxing videos and didn't require buy-ins.

Is Box Breaking Gambling?

There are concerns about whether box breaks should be considered gambling. The ones offering buy-ins meet the criteria for gambling in many states. And TikTok, for example, will no longer allow card breakers to broad videos on its platform and updated its restrictions on surprise-based products to include Surprise Trading Card Packs.

I was struck by the psychological elements combined in linking childhood nostalgia with games of chance. And while there are many highly regarded card breakers, the industry is unregulated. For example, there are rumors that card manufacturers intentionally give boxes loaded with hits to highly successful breakers, increasing the perception of better odds for a win.

Source: Erik Mclean/Pexels

Will the affection for trading cards and the popularity of unboxing videos about toys make buying into a box break seem like a good idea to kids? The popularity of unboxing videos on social media of everything from toys to shopping sprees combined with the wholesomeness of trading cards raises the question. Age minimums set at 13+ aren't going to help much, since the brain and its ability for abstract thought, judgment, and long-range planning skills are still developing. Teens are much more vulnerable to risk-taking behavior and a sense of invincibility (Sanders, 2013). The industry may face scrutiny by regulators, but that won't help. The regulations for online casinos have not kept gambling from being readily available online, as evidenced by the many ads for DraftKings sports betting during the Super Bowl, a platform that normalized gambling behaviors by putting them in between Tostitos and Avocados from Mexico.

Conversations With Kids

I don't like to be a reactionist and I definitely don't want to suggest unwarranted connections between a child who loves trading cards or unboxing videos and any later problematic behaviors. There is no evidence. However, the psychological factors make the topic a good "teaching moment" for parents with young trading card enthusiasts. Open conversations about the box breaking trend don't have to be alienating. There are reasons why it's fun, but it's good to point out that it activates some different psychological dynamics when money is on the line. Age-appropriate conversations (not lectures) can help kids start to differentiate between unboxing and box breaking and the distinction between fun and potentially problematic behaviors.

Digital Literacy Is Essential

When kids learn how the brain instinctively responds to things like FOMO, excitement, surprise, social comparison, and peer pressure and how technology can play into those innate responses, they are much more likely to become aware of these structural dynamics and make intentional choices. Those are valuable skills, applicable to all media experiences, like TikTok feeds and Instagram scrolling. And trust me, no kid likes knowing they are being intentionally manipulated. Having those conversations can build trust and lay a foundation for critical thinking, that in many cases, alleviates shame and empowers more thoughtful and intentional media choices. They also keep a curious child from relying on peers or discussion boards for information. There are discussion forums for box breaking events, just as there are for online gambling. Visiting gambling-related online communities is a predictor for problematic gambling because they endorse gambling behaviors by sharing information and techniques and providing social validation (Savolainen et al., 2022).

Practical Reasons for the Popularity of Online Box Breaking

From a practical standpoint, the appeal is pretty benign for adult collectors. Box breaking online events can:

• Connect enthusiasts and collectors that would not be able to meet otherwise.
• Provide collectors access to high-end or rare cards they might not be able to get (or even see) on their own. Buying into a group break gives collectors a better chance of obtaining coveted and valuable cards from a set.
• Enables a level of transparency and fairness in the card-collecting hobby. With the breaks, live streaming, and card ownership determined by randomization, the process gives all the collectors who buy into the break an equal chance of getting valuable cards.

Psychological Motivations for Participating in a Box Break

The psychological motivations are plentiful.

• Nostalgia. A box break events tap into nostalgia linked to childhood experiences and camaraderie, reminiscent of a time when life seemed simpler, and cards could be shared with friends. Nostalgia can be a positive coping mechanism during difficult times (Batcho, 2013).
• Social connection. Humans have a fundamental need for social connection and belonging. Box breaking can provide a sense of community and become a means of connecting with other collectors, increasingly compelling during COVID isolation.
• Community-created identity. Being a group member, a collector, a winner, or a fan all add a dimension to an individual’s sense of self and increase their sense of belonging (Savolainen et al., 2019). Collectors share the emotional excitement of opening a new box or case of cards, amplifying the sense of camaraderie with other collectors and the community and reinforcing the value of the hobby through discussion and sharing "the one that got away" box break stories.
• Emotional attachment to the breaker. Regularly attending box breaks with the same hosts or sites can increase emotional engagement through parasocial attachment (the sense of knowing someone you see in media).
• The thrill of chance. Human brains are hardwired to be curious—it is a leftover evolutionary survival instinct. The anticipation and outcome create a neuropsychological reward pattern. However, predictable rewards lose their stimulation and excitement. Keeping the brain curious and believing there is a chance of pay-off increases motivation. Thus there is a thrill from the uncertainty of not knowing what cards will be pulled from a box. This excitement is amplified in online group breaks where several collectors hope their spots deliver valuable cards.
• Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). Rare cards are not only valuable, but their rarity means that they don’t show up very often. The fear of missing out on a great card is a powerful driver for collectors. Similar to FOMO, marketers have long relied on scarcity to increase perceived value, desire, and the motivation behind purchasing behaviors.
• Shared stories. Life events are remembered and shared as stories. Even being part of a break that unearths a particularly valuable card can be exciting. It’s a “one that got away” story.
• Urgency. Live breaking has a sense of urgency as each card is opened and displayed as the audience anticipates the card and finds out who’s spot claims it.
• Learning. Collectors can learn a lot about the hobby of card-collecting, such as which cards are valuable, how often a good card shows up, how individual preferences influence desirability, and which sports are popular with different kinds of people, fans, and groups.
• Investment potential. Online box breaking lets people pool resources to increase their chances of obtaining cards whose value increases over time. It’s unlikely that this is a genuine money-making opportunity, except maybe for the box breaker. It is, after all, a form of gambling. However, “investment potential" can be a rationalization for why buying in is good if you feel too guilty to call it entertainment.
• Escapism. Online box breaking is a small but exciting vacation from daily life. It provides a temporary escape from the stresses and challenges, providing entertainment or relaxation.