Experience Studio

Decision-Making

Beware the Critical Points

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on January 6, 2023

In tennis, winning more points than your opponent doesn’t guarantee a victory. Neither does winning most of the games suffice. Here's why—and how it applies to real-life decision-making.

In tennis, winning more points than your opponent doesn’t guarantee a victory. Neither does winning most of the games suffice. Here's why—and how it applies to real-life decision-making.

Decision-Making

Managing the Expert-Experience Gap

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on July 4, 2022

Experience is a teacher that is extremely difficult to deny, even when it doesn’t accurately represent the dangers of the situation.

Experience is a teacher that is extremely difficult to deny, even when it doesn’t accurately represent the dangers of the situation.

Education

What Is the Machine Learning Illusion?

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on June 21, 2022

Machine learning can be useful for decisions. But assuming that it's always useful would be an illusion.

Machine learning can be useful for decisions. But assuming that it's always useful would be an illusion.

Decision-Making

Not All Crises Are the Same

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on June 6, 2022

Competent decision-making during crises requires decision-makers to recognize that not all crises are equal.

Competent decision-making during crises requires decision-makers to recognize that not all crises are equal.

Motivation

The Art of Failing

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on May 20, 2022

Not all failures are equal.

Not all failures are equal.

Cross-Cultural Psychology

How to Manage Politeness

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on May 12, 2022

To be sustainable, politeness needs to be used wisely by decision-makers and appreciated by recipients.

To be sustainable, politeness needs to be used wisely by decision-makers and appreciated by recipients.

Coronavirus Disease 2019

The Challenge of Timelag Sensitivity

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on May 4, 2022

Timelag sensitivity is about correctly estimating and recognizing the time it would take for certain causes to show their effects.

Timelag sensitivity is about correctly estimating and recognizing the time it would take for certain causes to show their effects.

Attention

Anecdotes May Be Charming, but Are They Reliable?

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on April 21, 2022

Presenters of ideas tend to gain more from anecdotes than the decision-makers who apply those ideas.

Presenters of ideas tend to gain more from anecdotes than the decision-makers who apply those ideas.

Cognition

Seeing an Illusion: The Face That Isn't a Face

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on April 12, 2022

Randomness can generate easily detectable patterns. Differentiating between illusory and causal patterns is essentially making decisions with the right expectations.

Randomness can generate easily detectable patterns. Differentiating between illusory and causal patterns is essentially making decisions with the right expectations.

Education

How Life Is and Isn’t Like Tennis

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on March 8, 2022

For our consequential decisions, we sadly can’t really behave as if we’re on a tennis court.

For our consequential decisions, we sadly can’t really behave as if we’re on a tennis court.

Self-Help

"Groundhog Day" and the Benefits of Counterfactuals

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on February 9, 2022

We would all be exceptional decision makers if we could somehow observe counterfactuals. Given that we can’t, what can we do instead?

We would all be exceptional decision makers if we could somehow observe counterfactuals. Given that we can’t, what can we do instead?

Trust

How Not to Be Easily Conned

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on January 12, 2022

Have you ever been conned or scammed? Chances are everybody has to some degree. Acknowledging one’s vulnerability might lead to wiser decisions.

Have you ever been conned or scammed? Chances are everybody has to some degree. Acknowledging one’s vulnerability might lead to wiser decisions.

Intuition

Using Algorithms to Enhance Intuitions

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on December 16, 2021

Do-it-yourself algorithms can challenge and enhance our intuition, especially when the situation is complicated and outside influencers can affect our decisions.

Do-it-yourself algorithms can challenge and enhance our intuition, especially when the situation is complicated and outside influencers can affect our decisions.

Decision-Making

Which Fires Should You Put Out First?

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on November 15, 2021

A major challenge in business (and life) is knowing how to prioritize decisions—especially during moments of crisis.

A major challenge in business (and life) is knowing how to prioritize decisions—especially during moments of crisis.

Decision-Making

3 Types of Data Garbage

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on October 18, 2021

More information is better for decision making... ideally. But can it also make things worse?

More information is better for decision making... ideally. But can it also make things worse?

Leadership

Management Is Not Meteorology

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on July 30, 2021

Self-fulfilling prophecies can lead us to learn the wrong lessons from experience.

Self-fulfilling prophecies can lead us to learn the wrong lessons from experience.

What we learn from experience becomes efficient and durable. But it also creates a disadvantage. We can struggle to adapt to changing circumstances.

Coronavirus Disease 2019

What's Irrelevant?

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on February 11, 2021

In life, what we observe shapes what we know, even when it contains irrelevant details that lead to misperceptions and illusions.

In life, what we observe shapes what we know, even when it contains irrelevant details that lead to misperceptions and illusions.

Magical Thinking

What's Missing?

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on November 12, 2020

When it comes to experience, out of sight easily and convincingly becomes out of mind.

When it comes to experience, out of sight easily and convincingly becomes out of mind.

Education

Experience: Kind vs. Wicked

Emre Soyer, Ph.D., and Robin M. Hogarth, Ph.D. on July 24, 2020

Kind vs. wicked experience: Learning the right lessons to improve decisions.

Kind vs. wicked experience: Learning the right lessons to improve decisions.