Why Did Rape Prosecutions Drop by Half in Lockdown?

Source: Photo by Danielle Dolson on Unsplash

The consequences of priority courts and the introduction of new public interest guidance has only just begun to emerge. For example, the increased backlog of untried cases is likely to take a decade to clear, and the fact that some types of prosecutions have been impacted more than others, one example being rape. The most recent figures published by the Crown Prosecution Service reveal the stark consequences on the volume of rape prosecutions, which fell by over half, from an already pitifully low rate of 480 in the last quarter of 2019/20 to just 218 in the first quarter of 2020/21 (a 55% drop).

Prior to COVID-19, the Victim’s Commissioner for England and Wales had already questioned whether rape was being de-criminalised in England and Wales, highlighting that in 2019 just 3% of rape allegations resulted in a suspect being charged, and of those charged, only around 50% were prosecuted.

This 50% prosecution rate has been fairly constant for several years now. For example, in the year ending 2017, police referred 6,611 cases to the Crown Prosecution Service of which only 3,671 were prosecuted. In the year ending 2019, 5,114 cases were referred (a 23% decrease) of which just 1,758 cases were prosecuted.

The reasons for this general trend are unclear. However, rape and other sexual offences are among some of the most complex cases to prosecute for several reasons. Rape is one of the most misunderstood forms of criminality, it is most commonly perpetrated by someone known to the victim, and in many cases, there will be no visible sign of injury. Hence, consent is often the primary issue in any prosecution decision. Further, significant psychological evidence reveals that the neurological response to the trauma of rape and sexual assault can have a severe impact a victim’s decision to report what has happened, and ability to give a clear and coherent account of the crime.

Sexual offending appears to be increasing in general, and COVID-19 lockdown is known to have triggered a dramatic increase in domestic violence where rape and sexual assault is often used to control and punish victims. A reticence to prosecute accompanied by low conviction rates has resulted in accusations of cognitive distortions surrounding rape, which may have strengthened during the pandemic.

Such distortions can manifest as "rape myths." Rape myths are broadly defined as beliefs about rape that are generally false and widely held. Examples include believing the victim is partly or even totally to blame or suggesting that only certain types of people are raped, thereby minimising the seriousness of rape. Indeed, a recent UK report indicated that 38% of men and 34% of women endorse such beliefs.

The unequal consequences of the COVID-19 health emergency are numerous. While many of these consequences have been widely publicised, the emotional wellbeing of witnesses, victims, and survivors of rape and other types of sexual offences have received relatively little attention. Yet, rape is among one of the most devastating of crimes which can have a lasting impact on victims, their families, and the wider community. The challenges of prosecuting sex offenders are well known and enduring.

Despite the public health emergency, however, 2020 marked an important move towards undermining outdated and damaging societal myths and stereotypes around rape and other forms of sexual offending. 2020 saw the introduction of the five-year Rape and Serious Sexual Offences (RASSO) strategy in England and Wales.

RASSO 2025 includes groundbreaking new guidelines for Crown Prosecution Service lawyers, which include advice on same-sex violence, how to challenge assumptions over victims sharing naked pictures or having agreed to meet their attackers, and how peripheral behaviours that might seem unusual to many do not constitute consent. Further, that sending a naked selfie one day is not blanket consent to a sexual encounter on another day. A psychological toolkit has also been developed, which provides contemporary scientific information about the devastating psychological and physiological reactions to rape.

The test for rape and serious sexual offences prosecutions has not changed — there must be a realistic prospect of conviction, and that a prosecution is required in the public interest — but without doubt RASSO 2025 is groundbreaking. As such, the Crown Prosecution Service should be applauded for working with partners across the criminal justice system and victims’ groups to drive improvements that are urgently needed.