What Can We Expect in the Wake of an Assassination Attempt?

Political violence has become the new normal in the U.S.; examples range from politically-motivated hate crimes to a failed coup and assassination attempts.

While tragic and concerning, the recent attempt on President Trump’s life is not entirely surprising. Recent research shows the more we dehumanize people on the other side of the political aisle, the more likely we are to support the use of political violence. The same study shows that political polarization leads to more political violence. With the increased American political polarization and media sensationalism, it seems the degree of violence may be bound to spike.

In the immediate aftermath of the attempt made on President Trump’s life, we are left to wonder: what’s next? History and social science can be great teachers. Drawing from their wisdom, I offer these three considerations we should attend to in the near future.

1. Public policy response: It is not unusual to see attempts to pass legislation in the wake of violent flashpoints. Mass shootings, for instance, often lead to political calls for gun control.

President Reagan survived an assassination attempt in 1981.

Source: WikiImages/Pixabay

Attacks on presidents and other leaders often lead to policy responses. For example, following the attempt made on President Reagan’s life, several policy changes occurred. The Secret Service grew in power and responsibility. Gun control efforts, namely the Brady Bill, also resulted from the assassination attempt fallout.

Gun control efforts seem permanently stalled in Congress right now. As a result, it may be unlikely this area of public policy will be the subject of any efforts in the aftermath of the assassination attempt made against President Trump. A question follows: What will the policy response be? It is likely that President Trump’s actions in the coming months will sway the direction of upcoming policy responses.

2. Political and social shifts: Beyond the immediate threat to life, a near-term outcome of assassination attempts concerns public perceptions of, or control by, that leader. History is replete with examples of increased popularity or tightening political control on the part of the targeted leader. President Reagan’s approval ratings famously rose after he survived an assassination attempt.

President Trump survived the recent assassination attempt -

Source: Library of Congress/Unsplash

Were we to follow history, we might surmise that President Trump’s efforts toward re-election will be aided by this event. That is, improved public perceptions of President Trump may be likely to happen due to favorable perceptions of his strength and leadership.

We may also see conservative efforts to tighten the reigns of political control wherever possible. International evidence shows that repressive regimes experiencing assassination attempts of leaders may move toward more restrictive approaches. To the extent the U.S. may be shifting away from democracy, we may witness further repression of rights following the assassination attempt of President Trump.

Socially speaking, we’re left to wonder how to collectively process this event. History offers one positive possibility. It has been argued that the assassination of President McKinley was ensured by the U.S. as a collective trauma. Perhaps in response to such trauma, the country may have been capable of coming together to overcome intergroup identity divisions and conflict. The opposite may also be true. Collective traumas such as 9/11, while bringing many together, also tend to result in worsened exclusion and victimization of some groups.

3. An escalation in violence: Perhaps the biggest matter to monitor moving forward is further violence. Unfortunately, conditions in the country appear ripe for multiple forms of violence.

The presidential election is one particularly troubling flashpoint. The field of conflict studies shows us four conditions that foretell extreme political violence around an election. Paraphrasing for simplicity’s sake, they are:

• An election with an unclear outcome that will significantly shift power.
• Severe identity-based political divides.
• Laws that allow suppression of election participation based on group membership.
• Mechanisms of accountability that are weak and favor one side over the other.

U.S. politics and social norms clearly meet the first two conditions. Recent research suggests that extreme left- and right-wing politics is linked with favoring political violence in the name of supporting their own agenda.

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Pending your personal political views, the fight over Congressional and other redistricting raises questions about the third condition. Finally, levers of justice may not prevent political and other violence because punishments are perceived as weak; those who commit violence may not expect to suffer consequences for their actions.

Affinity for conspiracy theories like those espoused by QAnon are linked with support for political violence among evangelical Christians.

Source: Wesley Tingey/Unsplash

How President Trump responds in his recovery from the attempt may also affect violence, particularly on the part of evangelical arms of the right. A team of U.S. political scientists provided evidence that three characteristics of evangelical Christians may be linked with supporting political violence. These characteristics are:

• Viewing oneself as a victim.
• Believing conspiracies.
• Appealing to white and Christian identities.

The appeal of political violence more generally is linked to:

• Viewing oneself as a victim.
• Holding authoritarian attitudes.
• Embracing populism.
• Strong white identity.

Additional research suggests racial and anti-immigrant messaging may also spark political violence. Importantly, cues from the political leader can be the aggravating source for actioning these factors into violence.

Scarcity of resources such as agricultural goods may set conditions for political assassination attempts.

Source: Gayatri Malhotra/Unsplash

Other scientific data raise concern about further assassination attempts. A 2018 study performed by U.S. and U.K. scholars applied innovative methods to understand conditions that may lead to assassination of political leaders. They identified three such factors:

• Actual or perceived scarcity of resources such as damage to agricultural production or control of resources by one group.
• Traditional cultures defined by adherence to old rituals, use of past frameworks to decide current legal matters, presence of monuments to cultural leaders, and widely accepted social hierarchies.
• Social conflict based in intergroup identity divisions, be they racial, political, geographic, or otherwise.

Narratives portrayed in the media and our daily U.S. experience certainly illustrate these conditions well.

These are only three areas we need to look out for. We are in a time of rapidly shifting political narratives, sensationalist media coverage, and largely absent leadership. It seems we experience nearly weekly inflection points at the national level. It becomes quite difficult to prepare for the next twist or turn in the American roller coaster as a result. As we all brace for what’s next, I can only wish you safety and good luck.

Note: The views and content expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect the views of his employers.