Two Examples of Misreporting COVID-19 Cases in the U.S.

Some of the mainstream media have described the currently reported number of COVID-related death (219,000) in the U.S. as indicating that the U.S. has the worst pandemic in the world or at least in the developed countries.

However, the claim is false because it is based on the misleading number without taking into consideration of the mortality cases in relation to each country’s population and other conditions.

For example, as recently reported by the World Health Organization [WHO] (October 12, 2020), Peru (or Belgium among the developed countries) is the country with the highest mortality rate per 1 million population. Adjusted for the population, the top countries with a higher mortality rate than the U.S. include:

1. Peru--1,006

2. Belgium--878

3. Bolivia--708

4. Spain--704

5. Brazil--704

6. Chile--694

7. Ecuador--691

8. Mexico 648

For COVID-19, the United States has 641 deaths per 1 million population. In the context, the United Kingdom actually just trails behind, with the mortality rate 630.

To make a number about COVID-19 deaths in a country more meaningful, we can also perform some vertical and horizontal comparisons. For example, the data in WHO’s website shows that from September 14 to September 28, 2020, the mortality rate in the U.S. increases about 5.4% in the 14-day period. However, from September 28 to October 12, 2020, the rate increases about 4.5% in the second 14-day interval, indicating the downtrend for the mortality rate. In contrast to the above vertical comparison, the horizontal comparison of the mortality rates of different countries can provide a better understanding of a country’s pandemic in the context. For instance, from September 28 to October 12, 2020, Spain’s mortality rate surges about 5.4%, higher than that of the U.S. (4.5%) and that of Belgium and UK (both rise about 2% in the same time). In short, an absolute number of COVID-19 cases supplies very little information about the severity of the pandemic and its prognosis.

A similar issue can be said about the reported number of total COVID-19 infections in the U.S. (8 million). It is high, but WHO’s report on the cumulative cases per 1 million population has identified the top countries:

1. Bahrain--44,245

2. Qatar--44,351

3. Israel--33,055

4. Panama--27,543

5. Kuwait--25,891

6. Peru--25,578

7. Chile--25,088

8. U.S.-- 22,911

Certainly, the U.S. should have done better in dealing with the pandemic, but it is not the right reason for reporting the numbers without considering the population size; particularly for the purpose of comparing different countries.

Notes: Some small countries such as San Marino, Aruba, and Andorra either have a higher mortality rate or a higher infection rate than the U.S.; they are excluded from the lists, because each population is below 1 million.