World Cup Strategy and the Psychology of Success

Can the study of the psychology of success help the England soccer team decide how to play against Belgium?

Currently, in the World Cup, England appears to be on a "winning streak," but the effect of success or failure on subsequent performance in various domains of life, not just sports, has been investigated by behavioral scientists, with surprising findings.

Wembley Stadium during a friendly match between England and Germany

Source: Richj1209/Wikipedia

An emotional phenomenon referred to as "momentum" has been observed in political campaigns, investment in stock markets, and in sports. In any situation in life where there are tests of performance which follow in sequence, often quite quickly, momentum may be at play.

For example, perhaps failing or passing one exam can create the emotional context whereby future passes or failures, shortly afterward, are affected.

In many sporting competitions worldwide, the tournament structure means it is sometimes in a team's interest to lose a particular match in order to gain an advantage later in the contest (based on who they play next). While team managers and athletes ponder the correct strategy, do they tend to neglect the psychological implications of such attempts to "game" the system?

The national preoccupation in England at the moment is the strategy of losing a match in order to win the tournament, as it may actually be better to finish second in England's current group in the World Cup. As things stand, finishing second means potentially avoiding some tough teams, such as Brazil, in the quarter-finals. In The Times Newspaper, Matthew Syed seemed to be echoing a growing consensus that, according to the headline, "Taking it Easy Against Belgium is Not Betrayal, It's Intelligent." A current headline on the BBC News asks: "Is it easier if England finish second in group?"

Some behavioral scientists might beg to differ. The counter-argument involves the contention that success in sport is more likely to be followed by further success, so that stalling a string of wins, even for tactical reasons, is hazardous psychologically and could lead to more losses later.

The psychological momentum theory argues for continuing to win, even if this puts the team at a strategic disadvantage later in the tournament.

Scientific research on this controversial issue in sports was recently published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. One particularly intriguing finding from this study was that psychological momentum appeared to have a significant effect for male but not for female athletes.

Their study, "Psychological Momentum and Gender," focused on a particular sports situation where momentum could be studied most precisely: bronze medal fights in professional judo. The authors of the study, Danny Cohen-Zada, Alex Krumer, and Ze’ev Shtudiner, argue that the gender difference they found with regard to psychological momentum and winning streaks suggest a role for testosterone in explaining male sporting performance. While testosterone is known to enhance performance of both men and women, it commonly increases following a victory and decreases following a loss only among men.

Investigating all major international tournaments during the period between 2009 and 2013, the study found evidence that men’s performance was significantly affected by psychological momentum, while women’s was not. The researchers, based at Ben-Gurion and Ariel Universities in Israel and the Swiss Institute for Empirical Economic Research, showed that in judo competitions, the contender with the psychological momentum advantage had a winning probability of about 69%, more than twice his opponent’s probability.

The paper points out that post-competition testosterone increases are associated with increased aggression, more willingness to compete and heightened motivation to win. Yet men experience testosterone increases not only after winning in sports, but also after other types of success.

Testosterone's potential to increase the odds of future success could extend to other areas. Several studies have found a positive association between testosterone levels and higher profits in financial markets among male traders. The research also finds that increases in testosterone lead to greater optimism among men—and greater risk taking. The authors quote a recent study that found an inverse relationship between the magnitude of price bubbles—where prices rise too fast and beyond what is warranted by the actual value of the asset—and the number of female traders in the market.

This research has interesting implications for competitors in the position of the England team. It suggests that even if the manager opts for a strategy of not aiming to win the game, he might want to substitute the winning team members with newer players who won't be playing so much in future games—and let them bear the psychological brunt of the loss.