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Millennialism has a very long pedigree; it seems that almost from the time Man first became aware of his own mortality, concerns about the end of the world have been a recurrent theme during stressful times. Our current times are no different. Millions of people are convinced the world will end because of our sins against Mother Earth (AGW) while other millions are convinced we have begun an inexorable decline in the West; Mark Steyn is one of the foremost proponents of the view that the West has lost its traditional strength as it has surrendered its traditional values:
If I am pessimistic about the future of liberty, it is because I am pessimistic about the strength of the English-speaking nations, which have, in profound ways, surrendered to forces at odds with their inheritance. "Declinism" is in the air, but some of us apocalyptic types are way beyond that. The United States is facing nothing so amiable and genteel as Continental-style "decline," but something more like sliding off a cliff.
I tend to agree with part of Mark Steyn's thesis. I do believe that the Anglosphere has done more to create and enlarge Western Civilization, including the emphasis on the Rights and value of the individual, than any other "tribal" grouping on the planet. Further, if America, "the shining city on the hill", falters, it is likely we will enter an extended period of barbarity; amid material wealth, the individual will be devalued, entrenched elites will become more and more authoritarian, and behavior between nations and between ethnic and religious groups will devolve.
Steyn's essay includes many of the well known tropes; we are losing our initiative, agency, and resolve as we increase our dependency on government; we are too easily ceding our hard won freedoms in favor of a stultifying conformity and Political Correctness; we are financing our own demise; our elites have completely inverted our principles and values. His conclusion is sobering:
In our time, to be born a citizen of the United States is to win first prize in the lottery of life, and, as Britons did, too many Americans assume it will always be so. Do you think the laws of God will be suspended in favor of America because you were born in it? Great convulsions lie ahead, and at the end of it we may be in a post-Anglosphere world.
His essay is a wonderful read, high level Apocalypse porn if you will, and everyday we see new evidence of the failure of our governments, our academics, our business leaders, and our opinion makers to stand up for those core values that have created and bequeathed to us this great nation and great Civilization. Yet, I think Mark Steyn, to paraphrase Wolfgang Pauli's famous comment, "may not even be wrong."
The Steyn article is merely prologue.
Zenpundit, Mark Safraski, answer the question, "What was the best book you read in 2010" as follows:
Best Book of 2010 ( that I read)
As my criteria for "best" will be the book with "most profound idea" then....the winner is.....The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. As I wrote recently:
A superb academic book ... The Collapse of Complex Societies embarks upon a critical examination and partial de-bunking of theories that purport to explain the "sudden" fall of great empires, such as Rome or the vanishing of the Mayans. With caveats, Tainter settles on declining marginal returns from increasing societal investment in complexity as a rough proximate cause capable of subsuming a " significant range of human behavior, and a number of social theories" under it's rubric. Highly recommended.
His first commenter, Joseph Fouche, who blogs at The Committee of Public Safety (someone should do a study of blog names; it would be fascinating) added:
Tainter's was the most important book I read this year.
In his review, John Robb noted:
THE SIMPLIFICATION OF COMPLEX SOCIETIES
If your interested in a very smart perspective on system collapse, please go read the anthropologist Joseph Tainter's book, "The Collapse of Complex Societies" (I've been a big fan of his work for ages). In the book, he makes the compelling case that complex societies are, at root, very successful problem solving systems. If they weren't, they would never have become complex in the first place. Why? Societies solve challenges by creating new rules and processes (new complexity) that are then added on to the existing system ad infinitum. More successful outcomes = more complexity.
John Robb is quite pessimistic for our current system but has some thoughts about a possible resolution. Joseph Fouche points out some of the drawbacks in Tainter's approach. I do not have the strategic depth of understanding or the background of these excellent bloggers, however there is much in the Tainter book that is worth discussing. The book is information dense and fascinating; reading it is some work but rewarding.
In the next few weeks I will discuss some of my impressions of this important work and hopefully will be able to add some Psychological insight to the discussion.
Copyright Perry R. Branson. See additional material and links, at ShrinkWrapped.
