The Authoritarian Drift: Psychological Roots of the Trend

An authoritarian wind is blowing across our planet. This is evident not only from recent political events but also from research, such as data from the World Values Survey (WVS). This international research project, which has been surveying citizens from nearly 100 countries for more than 40 years about their values and opinions on politics, religion, and family, shows growing support for authoritarian leaders in many countries.

For example, 40 percent of Romanians support the idea of a strong leader who disregards parliament and elections, while only 6 percent of Dutch citizens agree with this. In Thailand, where a military coup took place ten years ago, half the population supports this type of leadership. In Argentina, where President Alberto Fernández struggles with a deep economic crisis, support for strong leaders has risen by 35 percent. In Serbia, where President Aleksandar Vučić often faces criticism for his authoritarian tendencies, a similar increase is visible. In China, where President Xi Jinping has significantly expanded his power since 2013, support for authoritarian rule has tripled since the end of the last century. In my own country, the Netherlands, the recent elections brought the one-man political party of populist leader Geert Wilders into the government.

Even in the United States, once considered a beacon of democracy, we see this trend. The presidency of Donald Trump, from 2016 to 2020, was a clear expression of this shift. Among Americans, fueled by fears of economic inequality, immigration, and globalization, support for authoritarian leadership doubled during this period.

Recently, I spoke at a conference in Hungary, organized by the Budapest Forum, on the growing popularity of authoritarian leadership among both liberal and conservative voters. Social scientists and psychologists offer different explanations for this trend. Social scientists emphasize the role of the media, which often contributes to building a personality cult around authoritarian leaders. Media is also frequently silenced in authoritarian regimes. In Turkey, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has largely gained control of the media, while in Russia, Vladimir Putin has also effectively silenced all critical voices in the media.

Psychologists point to the role of fear, uncertainty, and loss of control: in times of crisis, such as economic recessions or high degrees of social inequality, people seek stability and order, which they believe they find in strong leaders who take drastic measures, even at the expense of democratic processes.

But what are the deeper causes of this need for a strong leader? There is growing attention to the influence of ecological factors, such as climate and geography. Journalist Tim Marshall, in his best-selling book Prisoners of Geography, takes an ecological look at political differences and suggests that Russia's tendency toward authoritarian leadership can partly be explained by the geographical threat from the West, where armies can easily cross the open plains toward Moscow.

Turkey, where earthquakes are a constant threat, has a society where strong leaders like Erdoğan are seen as necessary to act quickly and effectively in times of destruction. Our own research shows that other ecological factors, such as sex ratios, population density, and food supply also have an impact. We find, for instance, that in societies with a male-biased sex ratio, there is a stronger preference for a dominant leader because people are concerned about their physical safety when there are too many men around.

Other research finds that citizens in countries with a history of intensive agriculture have a greater desire for authoritarianism because farmland must be guarded, irrigated, and the harvest stored and redistributed, which requires hierarchy and supervision. In countries with a strong fishing tradition, such as Scandinavia, we see the opposite. Unlike farmers, fishermen are not dependent on authorities and are less concerned about the long term since their trade must be consumed immediately. This leads to more egalitarian relations and democratic values.

Even within a country, differences in food supply can lead to divergent cultural and psychological characteristics. In China, for example, rice farmers are more democratically inclined due to the required cooperation to maintain rice fields, while grain farmers are more authority-sensitive.

In light of the global trend toward authoritarian leadership, it is important not to underestimate the impact on the United States. This election is not only a political battle but a fundamental choice about the future of democratic values. Whether the U.S. will follow the path of countries like Russia, Turkey, and China, or resist the allure of authoritarian leaders, depends on how deep the fears and insecurities of the American people truly are.

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What the WVS research shows is that the benefits of a democratic system are not as self-evident as once thought. Francis Fukuyama's prediction that democracy is the endpoint of human history has not come true. The rise of authoritarian leadership worldwide forces us to reconsider the strength and resilience of democratic societies, not just in distant countries, but also closer to home.

An important question in our new research is how cultural ideals of authoritarian leadership are passed on and change. For example, when we look at migrants coming into Western Europe from Morocco or Turkey or refugees from Syria or Ukraine—countries where the preference for authoritarian leadership is much stronger—it is interesting to see whether they bring this preference with them to their new country or adapt to the new, more democratic environment. If these deeply rooted ideals of authoritarian leadership do not change quickly enough, we may face a society where democratic values are increasingly under pressure. It is up to us to remain vigilant and actively work to preserve the freedom and equality we take for granted.