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Last week, I discussed the rise of the "lone wolf terrorist" and the development of the TRAP-18 protocol by Dr. Reid Meloy and his colleagues. Intended to help law enforcement agencies identify people at high risk of extreme violence, the TRAP-18 is made up of eight warning signs that violence is imminent (proximal factors) and ten characteristics that might predispose people to become violent in future (distal factors).
According to the TRAP-18, the ten distal characteristics most often seen in lone-wolf terrorists are:
- Personal grievance or moral outrage regarding a specific individual or cause. This can be a major loss leading to feelings of anger and humiliation. Moral outrage can occur through identifying with a specific group or cause, even if the lone wolf has no apparent link with the group in question.
- Being framed by an ideology or a set of beliefs that justify violence in the first place. This can be a religion, a political ideology, or even a one-issue crusade. Even if the original belief system isn't specifically violent, lone wolves have a tendency to "cherry pick" those words or phrases that justify extremism. Their understanding of the ideology is often extremely simplistic and limited.
- Failure to affiliate with the extremist group. Often, when the lone wolf tries to join groups like the Ku Klux Klan or al-Qaeda, they are rejected due to being deemed too unstable to follow orders properly. In other cases, the lone wolf may refuse to join groups like this because they are seen as too moderate.
- Dependence on the virtual community. Even if the lone wolf feels isolated from family or immediate community, active communication is still occurring through social media, listservs, chat rooms, etc. Along with posting extremist messages on different platforms, they can also use the Internet to gain information on how to carry out their plan.
- Thwarting of occupational goals. Whether they are working at some dead-end job or still in school, lone wolf terrorists can often be driven to extremism through some sort of major setback such as being expelled or fired.
- People at risk for violence also display changes in thinking or emotion in which they become more absolute in their thinking. Any uncertainty has been eliminated and they shift from being sympathizers to a specific cause to actively trying to recruit people to join them. They also abandon any attempt at critically analyzing their beliefs and evolve into what Eric Hoffer termed the "true believer." Not only are they openly disgusted with anyone who could hold an opposing opinion, any attempt at humor is instantly rejected since they know what they believe and refuse to reconsider these beliefs.
- Failure to form a long-term sexual relationship or history of short-term failed relationships. Whether it involves a fixation on pornography, exclusive reliance on prostitutes, etc., people at risk of becoming lone wolves often learn to transfer their need for emotional companionship to the cause they support. They can develop a sexual fascination with weapons or become convinced that they will be rewarded with unlimited sex in future (such as with the promise of 72 virgins after death).
- Mental disorder. While lone wolf terrorists are usually not mentally ill, extremist beliefs may appeal to people experiencing mental health issues such as paranoia and psychotic thinking. As they decompensate further, they may become even more susceptible to radical ideas learned through the Internet or popular media.
- Greater creativity and innovation is another trait as lone wolves learn to think "outside the box" in probing weaknesses they can exploit for some violent act. Conversely, terrorist acts considered to be particularly innovative and effective often inspire copycats who follow their example.
- Criminal violence. While many lone wolf terrorists may not have a history of violence, previous acts of predatory violence such as armed robbery or assaults directed at others can be an important clue in many cases.
But how effective is the TRAP-18 in evaluating real-life examples of lone-wolf terrorism? A recent study conducted by Dr. Meloy and Paul Gill at London's University College examined 111 lone actors in the United States and Europe who were either arrested following their offenses or else died at the scene. The study, which was recently published in the Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, focused exclusively on offenders who actively planned and carried out an attack between 1995 and 2014.
For the purpose of the study, terrorism was defined as "the use or threat of action where the use or threat is designed to influence the government or to intimidate the public or a section of the public, and/or the use or threats made for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, or ideological cause."
All of the subjects in the study were independently rated to see how many of them were positive on each of the TRAP-18 variables. As an added analysis, the 111 lone actors were broken down into three categories: radical Islamic extremists, extreme right-wing terrorists, and single-issue terrorists. The researchers also compared terrorists who succeeded in their plots versus terrorists who were stopped before carrying out their violence. The study excluded people who were caught in police sting operations or who knowingly provided support for others carrying out terrorist operations.
Results showed that more than seventy percent of the subjects studied were positive on at least nine of the TRAP-18 indicators. Pathway warning behaviors such as engaging in "dry runs," stockpiling weapons, or making preparations such as acquiring bomb-making materials, occurred in 80 percent of cases while fixation behavior (intensifying religious or political belief or generally escalating anger) was found in 77 percent. Leakage (making public statements intended to inform as many people as possible about whatever grievances or beliefs the lone wolf has) occurred in 85 percentage of cases while identification (claiming to be part of a wider movement or group) was found in 77 percent of subjects. Examining the distal characteristics listed above, seventy-eight percent or more of the subjects scored highly in personal grievance and moral outrage, framed by an ideology, showing changes in thinking and emotion, and failure of sexual pair bonding. Four out of ten also showed signs of a mental disorder.
When looking at Islamic extremists, extreme right-wing terrorists, and single-issue terrorists, there were only a few significant differences in most of the proximal and distal factors. For example, Islamic extremists appear more likely to depend on virtual communities than subjects in the other two categories while right-wing extremists were less likely to display fixation warning behavior. When looking at successful versus thwarted lone wolf terrorists, the ones who were thwarted seemed more likely to share their plans online but this is harder to evaluate.
Overall, these results have demonstrated the rising importance of social media and online communities on the Internet that allow terrorist groups to recruit vulnerable people more effectively. This, along with examining the difference between successful and thwarted terrorists, needs to be examined more carefully in future research. Also, the TRAP-18 appears to be an effective tool in helping to identify people at risk for lone wolf terrorism though more research is needed there as well to fine-tune which proximal and distal factors are most important.
Unfortunately, even with the greater vigilance shown by police forces and security agencies, it is still far too easy for many lone wolves to stay "under the radar" by keeping their plans hidden until too late. Expanded use of tools such as the TRAP-18 may well mean the difference between life and death in future terrorist attacks.
