How to Deal With Expectation Bias

Pleasure and Expectations

Source: Pexels/Andrea Piacquadio

We all have expectations that either are placed on us by family or friends, or internally by ourselves. Some are artificial, and many are rooted in the word "supposed"—you are supposed to be a doctor, you are supposed to be married by age 30, or whatever other artificial (or real) expectations you might face.

There's the saying: “You have to lower your expectations or else you will get disappointed." Well, that is definitely true. But having no expectations, or belief that something positive will happen, is equally bad since you have nothing to look forward to. Expectations are important but need to be dealt with.

Making Choices

Life is full of choices. In decision-making, we normally try to adopt a logical process to define all options and select the one with the best-predicted outcome. At least that’s the classical method. However, behaviors and emotions often short-cut that process, sometimes for good and often not.

That’s the art of judgment in decisions. Either way, once the decision is made, the outcomes are completely open to chance and change. Our ability to manage the difference between the "expected outcomes" and the "actual outcomes" requires true emotional intelligence.

Cognitive Dissonance

This difference is the cognitive dissonance, or dissatisfaction and imbalance, that results in not quite measuring up. Another word for it is expectation bias, where your initial thoughts and perceptions impact your future behaviors.

To give a few simple examples, if you believe that you are going to get a big gift from somebody, and then it turns out they didn't give you anything but a “thank you” card, you may feel a sense of disappointment or even a loss. Your emotions take over, your mood shifts, and even your physiology changes, as if you really lost something tangible in this exchange.

But remember, you didn’t lose, but you didn’t gain either.

Or, if you had hoped for an engagement ring on a romantic weekend getaway, but instead the weekend passed and nothing happened, you would feel very disappointed. However, if you would not have had that expectation in your head, you just might have enjoyed your weekend. If you just thought of that as a getaway, with no clear expectations or goals, the time spent might have been marvelous.

The same thing holds true for the business and financial world.

The stock market is not driven by how well a company actually performs in a given period. It's driven by how well they do against their expectation (or forecast) from one period ago. The deviation between that forecast from last year or quarter and today is what defines the performance of the market.

The firm might have made $1 billion that quarter, but they predicted $1.05 billion in profits, and its stock price suffers because it didn’t meet investor’s expectations for performance. So, in that sense, stock markets and the financial world suffer losses when their expectations aren't met, too.

All of us get disappointed when we have great expectations, hopes, beliefs, and desires and they just aren’t met. So, is the answer to having lower expectations? Or something else?

Tips and Tools to Manage Expectation Bias

I’ve found that the answer lies less in trying to lower your expectations, and more to do with ensuring they are reasonable in the first place. Here are some strategies I find useful.

Anticipate Without Rigidity. We all need to forecast what an outcome might be, but if you remain hyper-focused on that singular outcome, you will definitely fall short. Anticipate what likely outcomes could be, try to remove judgment from them, and discourage rigidity in accepting what comes.

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Have a Clear Heart and Open Mind. Truthfully, while you might have expected one thing, the world has offered you something else. Be grateful for that, and open yourself to the possibility that this might be just as good as what you initially had hoped for, albeit different.

Seek Homeostasis. We need to cultivate an emotional state where our attitudes, beliefs, and cognition embrace change. Our physical body does this naturally, through homeostasis. If one part of the body is off, our biological processes adapt to the environment.

But with our emotions and behaviors, we don’t have as well-defined self-regulation tools. Strive for this by reminding yourself each time you feel disappointed that this is normal, and the expected outcomes don’t have to match the actual outcomes. In fact, they rarely do.

Expect Differences. If we go into each aspect of our life expecting that what really happens will be far different than what we planned, we will be much better off. I grew up thinking I would be a Supreme Court justice, and instead, I’m a professor and behavioral researcher. Expect deviations from the plan, and embrace them for all their uniqueness.

Express Yourself and Move On. Communication with your friends or partner can be very helpful. Expressing, and reflecting on what you're feeling, will help you confront the effects. Maybe it is with your partner that you had to alter your expectations. Share this with them, and explain how it made you feel. But then be open to forgetting and moving past it.

Summary

Although expectations are usually well-meaning, they have nothing to do with the actual level of satisfaction or value you derive from the activity or choice. Setting realistic expectations that are balanced and adaptive will help you find success through whatever outcome comes your way.