4 True, but Unreported, Headlines About the Coronavirus

This week I traveled round trip from Atlanta to Detroit for work. The normally cramped airplane was half-full, and I greatly enjoyed the luxury of having an entire row to myself on both legs of the itinerary. Yes, I noticed how careful the flight attendants were about touching (or not touching) any ‘unwanted items I wished to dispose of as they came through the aisles,’ and I noticed how vigorously the people in the women’s restroom at Hartsfield International Airport washed their hands, but I was generally pleasantly surprised with how typical and calm the airports felt and how unremarkable, with the exception of the extra leg room, the flights were.

Is it time to panic? I'm ready, just let me know when it is time.

Source: Nishizuka/Pexels

Of course, some of you reading this will think I am a thrill-seeking risk-taker for having boarded those flights. And I understand why: the media coverage of the COVID outbreak has turned the panic up to 11 now that the coronavirus is in the US, an event which was predicted back in January by the Johns Hopkins data science folks that produce the cool maps that everyone keeps citing.

As everyone who has ever been to see a scary movie or tried to go to an amusement park with me knows, I am what the experts call a “Hard Pass” on the novelty/thrill-seeking end of the personality spectrum. So I didn’t board those flights to tempt fate: I boarded them because I had a job to do, and that job required me to be in Atlanta for a brief period of time.

But I have parents, and relatives, and friends, who are very concerned about the headlines they are reading. These headlines, as I’ve written before, say next to nothing about the population at risk. By presenting only one number - the number of cases - without any context, it is not possible to understand how important that number is. You should never interpret a number in isolation, period. Numbers in isolation provide an excellent justification for irrational decision-making because they give the impression that you are acting on data/evidence, but really all you have is a sound-bite.

So, in the spirit of “not staying in my lane,” here are four accurate headlines that I wish journalists would consider writing:

Headline: In 2020 alone, for every 1 coronavirus death, there have been 343 influenza deaths in the US.

Evidence: As of 3/6/20 at 4pm EST, 14 people in the US have died of COVID this year. In contrast, the CDC estimates approximately 4,800 people in the US have died from influenza this year alone.

Headline: Despite having a safe, inexpensive (often free) and relatively effective vaccine, less than 60% of US adults get the flu shot each year. Increasing that proportion by 5 percentage points could reduce the number of serious influenza cases by 4,000 to 10,000.

Evidence: Every year the US surveys the population to measure how many people get the flu vaccine, and while it is higher now than it used to be, many more people could benefit from this prevention tool.

Headline: Washing your hands, which you are almost certainly not doing for long enough, is an effective means of preventing community transmission of most virus, including COVID.

Evidence: The smart folks at the CDC and the NIH.

Headline: Fear makes wild ideas contagious and spread through communities just as effectively as any virus.

Evidence: Remember the time when folks in Washington state thought that Nuclear fallout was messing with their windshields? How about that Junebug epidemic in the textile mill in North Carolina? Or that time when it seemed pretty reasonable that Cuba had a sonic weapon it was testing on Americans?

Refresh, refresh, refresh!

Source: Tim Gouw/Pexels

Now, I’m not saying you shouldn’t take precautions. There are many excellent reasons to avoid going on a cruise, as David Foster Wallace articulated (RIP), and this outbreak has given us even more reasons to book a different type of vacation. It is clear that people with weakened immune systems, existing health problems and those over age 65 are at highest risk of having complications from this virus, and I would encourage people with any of those characteristics to restrict their activities somewhat until this epidemic subsides. Which will eventually happen. Already over 55,000 (~55%) of all people who have been infected with COVID have recovered. Yes, there are going to be new cases identified, especially with the expansion in testing that is forthcoming, so don’t be surprised by that. But I wouldn’t be stockpiling toilet paper or any of the other strange things that people seem to be doing.

A final thought: I was a student at the University of Pittsburgh when 9/11 happened. They canceled classes and people left the city because at the time there was concern that Flight 93—which we later learned had likely been intended to attack DC—had been headed to Pittsburgh when it crashed in rural Pennsylvania. I remember sitting on the bus heading back to my apartment, numb from what was happening (or what we thought was happening). The man sitting across from me had a duffel bag full of money, which he explained was his life savings that he had just withdrawn from the bank. I remember thinking that perhaps I wasn’t scared enough of what was happening, and that made the fear I did have (which was substantial) increase tremendously.

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I think I am reminded of that memory now because it illustrates that sometimes, perhaps always, collective fear makes bad situations worse.