Meet Your Deadlines

How to handle the optimistic bias? It all hinges on the likely
consequences of underestimation.

o If missing a projected deadline is likely to land you in trouble,
you might want to get your boss's input before you make a firm
commitment. While people underestimate their own finish times, they
overestimate others', find Roger Buehler, Ph.D., of Simon Fraser
University, Dale Griffin, Ph.D., and Michael Ross, Ph.D., of the
University of Waterloo. Observers who know both your future plans and
your past performance--your boss likely fits that bill--take it all into
account. As a result they usually give more conservative estimates. In
fact, they frequently allot too much time. So to get the most accurate
picture, consider your estimate, your boss's, and split the
difference.

o When your supervisor isn't available, Buehler recommends taking
some time to think about your track record on similar tasks. Then relate
those experiences to your present project. Say getting previous projects
done meant meeting with a chronically unavailable coworker to gather
vital information. If that colleague's in the loop this time, keep it in
mind as you make your prediction.

o On the other hand, if there's no negative fallout for missing the
target time, you may not want to make a more generous forecast.
Propitious estimates have their value. "Making an optimistic prediction
might motivate you to finish a task earlier than you would have," says
Buehler.

So if missing a deadline means trouble, consider past experiences.
If not, focus on your future plans and move full steam ahead!