Risky Business

DIFFICULT DECISIONS

When it comes to taking risks, most of us would rather have gum disease. And that's probably a good thing.

"The average person has problems identifying potential risks and deciding how likely they are to occur," declares J. Frank Yates, Ph.D. In addition, most of us overestimate the value of our own Judgment In matters of common knowledge. "On goner-al is. sues, we assume we are d&-and often are not," observes the University of Michigan professor of psychology.

Editor of a book called Risk-Taking Behavior, Yates assigns part of the blame to the "working register" in the brain. It can accommodate only a few ideas at one time. Once an Idea has been generated, there's limited space left to calculate risks.

And that explains why we're so quick to react to the risks of others' ideas while seemingly Ignoring our own. Ideas genera" by others do not take up prime real estate inside our brains. Research on problem-solving demonstrates them are ways to discover and measure risk well without succumbing to anxiety in the process Yates Identifies the pitfalls to avoid and rules to follow:

o One basic rule is to consider all possible risks of an endeavor ever several occasions, taking notes each #me. Involving others in your decision is also beneficial, as individuals working alone will produce far fewer solutions to a problem, and will underestimate how many ideas they overlooked.

o Simulate the Risk Rent a car or house before actually buying one; volunteer or intern for a new Job to see if it suits you; monitor classes before enrolling in a program. Talking to experts and reading books on the subject isn't a bad idea, either. Above all, Yates says prophetically, "Know thyself. Be aware of the emotional factors that affect how we estimate risks."

The plain fact is if we want something bad enough, we'll be willing to risk an awful lot to get it-rationalizing our behavior and downplaying the chances of our getting hurt in the process. And how's this for the male ego: men are more likely to believe that if they play a role in the risky activity, everything will somehow turn out okay.

Illustration: (LISA STE INBERG)