The Art of Thinking Clearly

Do you want to influence the behavior of people or organizations? You could always preach about values and visions or you could appeal to reason. But in nearly every case, incentives work better.

Do you have everything under control? Probably less than you think.

We systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict—on a massive scale. The overconfidence effect does not deal with whether single estimates are correct or not. Rather, it measures the difference between what people really know and what they think they know.