COVID-19 and False Hope: An Empirical Study

This is the third and final installment for a series on false hope and COVID beliefs. I conclude with a summary of the empirical study presented on Oct. 29 and 30 and offer some suggestions for evaluating your personal level of real hope.

Individuals who identified as Republican and those preferring right-leaning news sources scored higher in false hope. Do these false hope scores reflect an underlying personality predisposition or the impact of external influences?

The data reveal a stronger effect for party affiliation as compared to preferred news sources. This suggests that something deeper than media indoctrination is at the root of false hope. A full discussion of this topic is beyond the scope of this blog post. Clearly, there is diversity among members of any political party and the meaning of being a Republican or Democrat has varied over time. However, my review of the political science research suggests two primary Republican subgroups, one mainly concerned about identity (Who am I? What does it mean to be an American?) and the other focused on economics. The first group appears to desire greater attachment and spiritual hope while the second seems to strive for greater mastery and survival possibilities. In both cases, a higher level of unmet need, relative to internal or external resources, yields an amplified expression of hopefulness.

The gender differences were dramatic. A study of more than 20,000 individuals across 8 countries was conducted by the Harvard Business School in May 2020. That data was consistent with the present findings in one respect, women were “more likely to see COVID-19 as a very serious health problem." However, the authors of the May study concluded that the gender effects were straightforward, unaffected by other variables. In contrast, the present research points to a gender by false hope interaction.

False hope is akin to a compounded pharmaceutical painkiller. The formula may vary somewhat across cultures and individuals but the main ingredients will invariably be one or more elements of distorted attachment, survival, or mastery needs. The American manufacturing of false hope appears to be especially potent and may help to explain why a country that represents just four percent of the world’s population registers one-fifth of all COVID deaths. Drawing on the scholarship of Heike Paul (The myths that made America), the more lethal American brand, a varietal particularly addictive for men, may be laced with “rugged individualism," belief in “the self-made hero," faith in unbridled “expansionism," and a felt birthright to a “promised land."

Failing to distinguish a real virtue from the counterfeit vice, psychological naivete may lead to the empty conclusion that false hope is not a “strategy." In contrast, I suggest that real hope is a strategy for addressing COVID-19 as well as other life challenges. I have written about the value of hope in the context of COVID, in this space (Psychology Today), as well as a recent chapter for an Italian publication on resiliency and the Coronavirus ("The New Coronavirus and Resiliency: Strategies for Controlling an Invisible Enemy").

As a psychologist, it is perplexing to witness recent government pronouncements that COVID cannot be controlled, that the public should just wait for medical “therapeutics” which in initial iterations, may work for only a percentage of the population, perhaps for a limited timeframe, and only when distributions can meet the demand. It does not require a Ph.D. in clinical psychology to realize that emotional and behavioral interventions are not only effective but essential in addressing a contagious disease. However, care must be taken in the kinds of emotional and behavioral responses suggested by government officials, political leaders, or the media. Encouraging oversimplified notions of American grit or unbridled optimism will only make matters worse. Ignoring reality is why America leads the world in COVID suffering. We must stop prescribing the problem if we are sincere at arriving at a solution.

COVID fatigue is traceable to isolation, perceived constriction of the life space, a sense of growing powerlessness, and limits on spiritual engagements. A full dose of hopefulness, consisting of deeply anchored attachment, survival, mastery, and spiritual resources, is comparable to a broad-spectrum vaccine. Indeed, real hope can be a very powerful PPE (Personal Protective Emotion).

In my other posts, I have provided a number of suggestions for building hopefulness. Here is a simplified version for assessing your hope “vital signs."

For attachment, draw a table with 6 rows and 9 columns. In column 1, list the 6 most important people in your life. In columns 2 and 3, note why you trust that individual. In columns 4 and 5, indicate any trust problems. In columns 6 and 7, indicate important similarities between you and each individual. In columns 8 and 9, note any important differences.

For survival, create a 2 x 4 table. Focus on COVID for this exercise. Going across, label the columns: taking responsible action, personal assets (age, health, money, family, etc.), growth forces (learning, maturation), and favorable environmental conditions (weather, neighborhood, community, etc.). In row one, go across and list actualities (actions taken, present assets, etc.). In row two, list future potentialities (what else you can do or acquire).

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For mastery, create a 5 x 8 table. Generate a list of your top five strengths (column 1). Identify 3 people who mirrored you (validated those strengths) (columns 2-4). In column 5, list 5 people associated with each strength who have inspired you by demonstrating that strength. In columns 6-8, list any doubters or dream-killers who failed to see your strengths.

For spirituality, consider your spiritual type. Are you a follower (love structure), independent, mystic (emotional connection), collaborator (team player), or suffering (painful past, seek healing)? Create a 2 x 5 table. Label columns 2-5: religious or spiritual belief system, art, nature, humanity (4 centers of value). In row 1, list left-brain activities, consistent with your spiritual type, to nurture one or more of these potential centers of values. In row 2, generate right-brain experiences. You do not have to fill every cell.