School Shooters: Recognizing Extreme Overvalued Beliefs

A concerning shift can occur in the human mind after spending significant time in the sewers of the internet. Beliefs that start from a grievance can head down a dangerous path to become “extreme overvalued beliefs”—firmly held convictions that are shared and amplified within online communities and can have devastating consequences. This is also known as a contagion effect or "copycat" phenomenon. (As I will explain, threat assessment professionals utilize behavioral patterns to thwart attacks.) At the heart of these observed patterns are pathological fixations that are shaped through interactions with others.

Definition

Overvalued ideas, first described by neuroscientist Carl Wernicke, have been part of psychiatric scholarship for over 125 years. They are seen in eating disorders, body dysmorphic disorders, hoarding, and in querulant litigants. An extreme overvalued belief is shared by others in a person's cultural, religious, or subcultural group (including online) and should be differentiated from a delusion or obsession. The belief is often relished, amplified, and defended by the possessor. Over time, the belief grows more dominant, more refined, and more resistant to challenge. The individual has an intense emotional commitment to the belief and may carry out violent behavior in its service. Over time, these beliefs become increasingly binary, simplistic, and absolute. Data sets from studies utilizing proximal warning behaviors and distal characteristics of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), developed by Dr. Reid Meloy, show that pathological fixations are present in 81% of cases. This protocol has been applied to a variety of targeted violence studies, including school shooters.

Digital Subcultures

Let's consider the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, where 17 students and educators were killed. The perpetrator, Nikolas Cruz was heavily influenced by extremist content he found online. He posted "I am going to be a professional school shooter" on YouTube several months prior to the attack (leakage warning behavior). Cruz relished previous mass murderers, such as Columbine shooters Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, Virginia Tech shooter Seung-Hui Cho, and many others. He regularly indulged in reading articles and watching documentaries about infamous mass shootings. Such shared, depraved online subcultures are typical of extreme overvalued beliefs. There was no evidence that Cruz had psychotic symptoms such as hallucinations, delusions, or disorganized speech. Instead, he had an intense emotional commitment to his beliefs and carried out violent behavior toward the students and staff of his high school.

Similarly, 18-year-old Payton Gendron was the perpetrator of the 2022 mass shooting in Buffalo, New York. He targeted black shoppers in a grocery store, and live-streamed his attack. He also had no prior evidence of a severe mental illness such as psychosis. Instead, Gendron relished, amplified, and defended his actions, which were motivated by "The Great Replacement" conspiracy theory that he shared with others in his online subculture. His ideology, which is also commonly espoused by white supremacists, proclaims that "Black people are replacing White people" in society. Such binary, simplistic, and absolute messaging and a lack of counterbalancing information allows beliefs to become dominant, refined, and resistant to outside challenge.

Adolescence is a time of identity formation where teenagers are vulnerable to the influence of their peers and the social media they consume. A period marked by a search for belonging and purpose can make adolescents prime targets for fantasies that become a fixation. Unlike delusions, which are rooted in psychotic disorders, “extreme overvalued beliefs” are shared within groups, giving them a powerful and insidious influence (such as in eating disorders). These beliefs are not fleeting thoughts but are deeply glorified, fanatical ideas that become central to a young person's identity and behavior. When a belief is constantly reinforced by like-minded peers or online (without normally counter-balancing information), the stage is set for them to become extreme and overvalued.

Teachers, parents, and community members should be vigilant in learning about warning behaviors such as fixation, identification, leakage, and pathway to intervene before harmful actions are taken. The well-being of our children depends on it.

So, how do we spot the development of an extreme overvalued belief in a student? The signs might be subtle initially but are telling. A sudden change in behavior, like increased isolation, intense preoccupation with a particular ideology, or a noticeable language shift, can all be indicators. For example, a student who starts expressing vehemently polarized or extreme views, engages in hostile debates, or shows an unusual interest in prior shooters may be on the pathway toward violence. Teens often leak their plans to others, often to online acquaintances.

While identifying warning signs is crucial, intervention is equally vital. Schools also need to provide education about extreme overvalued beliefs to students to help "cognitively inoculate" against them. Such prevention strategies have worked for other types of overvalued thinking seen in eating disorders (e.g., The Body Project). Identifying immediate risk involves collaboration between educators, mental health professionals, and law enforcement. Timely intervention to remove access to weapons might be critical in averting tragic consequences.

There is no evidence that autism, ADHD, mood disorders, or being bullied by peers causes mass shootings. However, such conditions may predispose some students to grievance-laden cognitive shortcuts seen in extreme overvalued beliefs. As an analogy, eating disorders can be prevented, but also require comprehensive management once they occur. Indeed, studies such as the Violence Project by Jillian Peterson have provided numerous ways to help prevent tragedies.

Intervention often entails treating co-morbid conditions such as mood or anxiety disorders. Counseling, family involvement, mentorship, community backing, as well as law enforcement backing are also essential. Empowering students to question encountered extreme beliefs rather than passively accepting them is essential. Students who feel connected and supported are less likely to seek solace in ideologies to fill an emotional void. Finally, by supporting and funding threat assessment and management teams in every American school system, we can finally work toward putting an end to mass shootings.