Gun Violence During COVID-19: An Epidemic in the Pandemic

Source: LAPD / Alamy Stock Photo

Gun violence has been on the rise during the pandemic. Why?

Yes, there has unfortunately been an epidemic of gun violence during the pandemic. To understand why, we must first highlight that there was a sharp increase in the number of new gun purchases in 2020 as measured by FBI statistics from the National Instant Background Check System (NICS). The increase amounted to as much as a million more checks per month in 2020 compared to 2019.

This suggests that due to pandemic fears—not only of falling ill, but of economic crisis, food insecurity, civil unrest, and the equivalent of a zombie apocalypse—that people were stockpiling guns like they did with toilet paper early on. Except that unlike toilet paper, they’re still stockpiling guns in 2021, even more so than they were in 2020.

Whether it’s a directly causal relationship or not, having more guns around is associated with more gun violence and firearm-related deaths, just as having more cars and drivers on the freeway is associated with more motor vehicle accident deaths. Data from the BulletPoints Project tells us, for example, that unintentional injuries from firearms increased nearly 50 percent in 2020 compared to previous years. Throughout the pandemic, the US also saw increases in domestic violence, mass shootings, and gun violence more broadly, especially in, but not limited to, urban communities.

Many have speculated that the rise in gun violence may have also affected by the lockdown putting the brakes on gun violence prevention programs.

Why makes people decide to purchase a gun?

Keeping in mind that over 40 percent of U.S. households have a gun in them, we should recognize the diversity of gun owners and the many different reasons that people own guns rather than succumb to stereotyping. And when we think about what a "typical gun owner" looks like, the image that comes to mind might be very revealing about our own prejudices in this regard.

There are many facets of gun owner diversity. For example, there are potentially meaningful differences between the motivations of people who purchase a hunting rifle, an AR-15, and a handgun. And there are potentially meaningful differences between those who own one gun and those who own 20 or 50.

That said, the number one reason why people own guns—especially handguns which are responsible for the vast majority of firearm violence—is self-defense. In that sense, from a psychological perspective, gun ownership is often about fear, safety, and power.

Beyond that generality, we can then explore what an individual gun owner is afraid of. And we should start by acknowledging that many people have legitimate reasons to be fearful, whether they’re living in rural settings where they might have to defend themselves against a bear attack or in an urban community where things like gang violence or home invasions are a reality.

But for most gun owners, the risks of victimization are in reality quite small, whereas statistically speaking, the risks of owning a gun in terms of a gun-related accident, homicide, or suicide occurring in the home—usually perpetrated by a family member or known acquaintance—are substantially greater. That’s something gun owners should consider, especially in terms of how to be a responsible owner who minimizes the risks of having a gun in the home.

As with so many human decisions, however, especially when fear is involved, weighing the risks and benefits of gun ownership is less about so-called “rational choice economics” and more about motivational reasoning—taking a biased view of the risks and benefits to fit our personal beliefs. For many gun owners, belief in the potential self-protective benefits of gun ownership—similar to other risky behaviors whether we’re talking about having unprotected sex or texting while driving—means that they discount the risk of harm to ourselves or our family members that comes with gun ownership.¹

Why are guns a part of the American identity?

Gun culture is part of American culture. From its beginning, our nation was founded on violent revolt from tyranny so that the right to bear arms is engraved, as it were, in the Constitution. Today, the idea of the American hero responding with a gun to defeat an oppressor in the name of freedom and democracy around the world is a central archetype in our national psyche.

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Many of us—myself included—grew up playing with toy guns in scenarios pitting “cops and robbers” and “cowboys and Indians” against each other. I must say that looking back on it now as an adult, I see the idea of playing “cowboys and Indians”—in which indigenous peoples were fantasized as a savage enemy instead of the other way around—or “cops and robbers”—in light of what we’ve seen of police abusing their power in recent years—in a wholly different light.

Many popular Hollywood films—from action moves to comedies—as well as TV series and video games, glorify gun violence and minimize the impact of being shot. It's not that media exposure necessarily causes gun violence—the evidence to support that claim has been inconsistent—rather, what’s depicted in the media seems to be a reflection of our collective appetite for violence and can play a desensitizing role.

Many Americans do grow up in communities where guns are as much a part of social life and recreation as eating apple pie, drinking beer, or playing baseball or football. In other communities, gang-related gun violence is a ubiquitous reality. Here in Los Angeles, when I ask my patients about gun ownership when I’m assessing suicide risk, many say they don’t have one, but could easily get one “on the street.”

So, one way or another, guns are everywhere and there are now more than ever. Well before the pandemic surge in new gun ownership, the U.S. already had the greatest rate of civilian firearm possession than any other country on the planet by far.

What else do we know about the relationship between gun violence and fear during the pandemic?

Although guns are certainly used recreationally for sport, they are, in essence, designed to kill and typically purchased for self-defense.

Going back to my earlier statement, if we want to understand why people own guns, we should start by understanding what gun owners imagine when they think of a circumstance when they might have to use a gun for self-protection. Who are they imagining they'd have to defend themselves against? And does that fantasy reflect a real or accurate risk or one that’s been grossly inflated due to unwarranted fears?

There is evidence that gun ownership—and the decision to purchase a gun for the first time—is related to a history of previous victimization.^2,3 From that perspective, when considering an anticipated scenario of repeat victimization, the idea of having no chance of self-preservation—that is, not having access to a gun—can be intolerable.

But in the modern world, there’s also evidence that fears arise out of “victimization by proxy”—that is, by hearing about other people’s stories of victimization by word of mouth, on the news, or through social media and the likes of YouTube. So, it becomes less about accurate risks of victimization and more about imagined risks based on the worldview that we consume and are fed.

Over the past year, I’ve watched more videos of people being shot—whether in the context of war, interpersonal disputes, or by police—than I have in my entire life. With the police violence and associated civil unrest that we witnessed during the pandemic, it’s easy to see why people on both sides of the political fence might have been feeling more fearful of other Americans and why an unprecedented number of guns were purchased in the past two years with a huge spike in first-time gun ownership.

On the political right, fears about The Great Replacement and the Black Lives Matter movement or Antifa ransacking cities became demonized bugaboos, while on the political left, fears about racially motivated violence and a second term of an authoritarian regime reached a fever pitch. Independently of which fear might have been more justified, fear in any form and the idea that the world and our communities are dangerous places to live in is always good business for gun manufacturers.

There is also evidence that gun ownership is intertwined with longstanding racial tensions that boiled over during the pandemic and contributed to a surge in new gun ownership. Research by Angela Stroud, a professor of sociology and social justice at Northland College, has suggested that for some white men, gun ownership is related to tropes about “good guys with guns” protecting themselves and society at large against “bad guys” who are often people of color. That narrative certainly seems to fit what many of us saw when we watched the video of Ahmaud Arbery being murdered in February of 2020. Conversely, Julia Craven, a reporter at Huffington Post, has written about how black people purchase guns due to their own concerns about victimization, a fear that was no doubt heightened for many in 2020.

This is not to suggest that pandemic gun violence has been due to interracial conflict per se—there’s been little evidence of that on any large scale. Conservatives and gun rights advocates instead argue that the spike in gun violence might be better attributed to rising crime and efforts to defund police. There's no denying that gun violence in urban centers like Chicago and Philadelphia has exploded during the pandemic.

But acknowledging racial tensions and civil unrest helps us to understand the drivers of new gun ownership in the pandemic and how that surplus upon an already existing surplus of guns—there are an estimated 120 civilian firearms per 100 persons in the U.S.—is likely to have a spillover effect on gun violence more generally, compounding the morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19. Causally or not, more guns means more gun violence.

Guns may not kill people by themselves, but people kill people with guns. So long as that’s true, we shouldn’t expect the gun violence epidemic to abate anytime soon.