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When the House of Representatives impeached Bill Clinton in 1998 the facts were agreed upon: he had an affair and then lied about it. What was disputed was whether this was an impeachable offense.
In the current impeachment it is different. There are distinct differences in perceptions of the core facts at issue.
Most polling is focusing on whether Americans support impeachment, but a few are drilling down on perceptions of facts as the basis for a judgment.
FiveThirtyEight has been conducting some valuable polling on the three core factual claims being made by House Democrats:
Note that Republicans are in agreement (64%) with Democrats that Trump did ask the Ukrainian President to investigate Biden (which is clear in the read-out of the phone call).
However, the perceived facts of whether this was clearly connected to withholding military aid are not at all the same; only 26% of Republicans believe this was the case, compared to 84% of Democrats.
The same is the case regarding whether the facts indicate a cover up.
A more recent poll from Monmouth illustrates the same trend:
Conservatives agree that Trump asked for an investigation of Biden, but they do not perceive the likely reason to have been personal gain rather than anti-corruption policy.
The distinction in factual perceptions is vast. But Republicans are not just reflexively rejecting all of the facts asserted by the Democrats. The greater the lack of clarity in the evidence, the more variation occurs.
Personal beliefs, social groups, and political identities all push observers in the same direction: projecting preferred values onto perceived facts.
Now that the hearings are over and the available evidence has been presented, we suspect that factual perceptions are hardened and little shift will occur in the future.
