Calling Trump and Clinton - It's Hurricane Matthew

As we look at our next President, one of the lenses we look through is how much we can trust, believe in and have confidence in them.

Trust usually comes from feeling a person is authentic, transparent and forthright. The more we feel someone is hiding something or sneaky the less we trust them.

Donald Trump certainly wins on appearing authentic, transparent and forthright. And for some reason those qualities are so powerful and refreshing compared to politicians that they seem to override worrying about his hiding or being sneaky. It's also possible that we like how entertaining and refreshing (as offensive as he often be) he comes across that many don't pay as much attention to untruths or inconsistencies. Finally, it's possible that since most people are inconsistent and not completely truthful or candid, that they also relate to him and are less judgmental towards him.

Hillary Clinton has a problem than many women in power have when it comes to appearing authentic, transparent and forthright. With too many (especially white) women in such positions, there is a belief that if they come off as too feminine or maternal they won't be seen as strong. As an aside, part of Michelle Obama's appeal is that she appears both warm and strong, which is one of the reasons why she is so admired.

Believing in comes from people having a track record of doing what they say, meaning what they say, saying what they mean. In essence it comes from being believable. Let's call it a tie between the candidates, with neither of them scoring very highly. This sense that we can't believe in either of them might be the single biggest reason for both of their unfavorable ratings.

Confidence comes from knowing what someone's track record has been.

Since Trump has not held public office he gets a pass in that area. However if we learn that he has not been as successful a businessman as he claims, that confidence could be shaken. Perhaps that is one of the reasons for his not releasing his tax returns, because they would give a clearer view of Trump the businessman.

With regard to Hillary Clinton, it's much clearer what she has stood for than what she has actually been able to get passed through Congress. And when issues of the Iraq war, Benghazi or her email crop up, that causes people to question her judgment.

Judgment calls have a lot to do with how much confidence we feel towards someone. The better those calls turn out, the more confidence we have. The worse those calls turn out, the less confidence we have

In their book, Judgment: How Winning Leaders Make Great Calls, Noel Tichy's and Warren Bennis' research explain that the most important areas and greatest tests of judgment for leaders are:

1. Strategy
2. People
3. Crisis

Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton, Hurricane Matthew has created havoc in the southeastern part of America. In such situations, people look to the Commander in Chief to help them make it through the crisis. Such events, then, raise important questions:

1. What's your strategy?
2. Who and what people will you select to carry it out?
3. How and what will you do to both prepare for the crisis and be able to adapt and adjust to every unpredictable thing it throws at you?

Although this is a practice run since neither are yet in office, if they could each answer those questions, it might give us a taste of what their judgment calls might be and how they might lead.

Therefore, as uninvited as Hurricane Matthew is, it might offer us a litmus test on who is better qualified to be Commander in Chief.