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Psychology
The Psychology of Seeming Right
Watching out for these three phenomena could save you time or money.
Posted June 1, 2021 Reviewed by Jessica Schrader
Key points
- Polished speakers who present solutions to vexing problems can seem right even when they are not.
- Three important phenomena that help explain seeming right are the attraction to stories, aversion to uncertainty, and ease of perceiving.
- Smart consumers of presentations could save money and trouble by recognizing and countering these phenomena.
The internet is replete with speakers, experts, and gurus who offer explanations and advice for running companies. They might be management consultants, HR advisors, or software startup entrepreneurs who have found a solution to a vexing organizational issue. After their presentations or internet video talks, many sell their services to organizations in the form of speaker’s fees, consulting engagements, or software-as-a-service (SaaS) products.
The most successful of these speakers have something in common: they just seem so right.
The explanations they give fit the facts, they tie events together in a sensible way, and they make us feel like we understand something better. The stories they tell are compelling. The trouble is that all these criteria, although they feel good, do not necessarily mean the speaker’s story is correct. People who seem so right have often turned out to be wrong (Stewart, 2009). Indeed, some speakers trade on seeming right, and intentionally mislead for the sake of profit—we call them charlatans.
Why do we fall for it? And how can you become a better-informed consumer?
The allure of the story
It’s easier to comprehend and remember information if you can tie it to things that you already know, if you can make sense of it, if you can connect it into a narrative (Brown et al., 2014). Stories tick these boxes. If a speaker says that A happened, and then B happened, it is easy to conclude that A caused B—that narrative, that story of a causal connection, makes the information manageable and understandable.
As an example, say you hear a speaker claim, “Here are 10 examples of leaders who were humble who were also very successful. Humility is the key to successful leadership.” The causal statement—that humility was the key to success—makes sense, especially if it lines up with other beliefs you already hold about how things work. The sense-making of the story is attractive, and can make it seem right, even if it is not (Nassim Taleb calls this the "narrative fallacy").
How to avoid a mistake: Resist drawing that causal conclusion without proper evidence. The story may fit the facts, but it is not enough evidence to draw the causal conclusion. There are many other possible explanations that could fit the facts equally well—which have been empirically ruled out? If you believe a speaker’s claims because the story is attractive, it could be a costly purchase that may cost even more to undo.
The allure of explanation, or aversion to uncertainty
Sometimes in life, we just don’t know why something happened. We cannot conclusively explain everything. But many speakers/salespeople offer just that—explanations of why things happened as they did, and the promise that applying their explanation to your own circumstances will solve problems or lead to better outcomes. These post-hoc explanations can be satisfying, and can even fit the facts very closely. They appeal to a general need for knowing the ‘why’—a need to explain things, to be rid of uncertainty (Kruglanski et al., 2010).
How to avoid a mistake: The potential pitfall of this need for explanation is spending resources on something that describes the past but cannot predict the future. Even if a claim accurately describes a past event, that accurate description is not enough evidence to conclude that the explanation will accurately predict the future. In other words, a claim that seems to reduce uncertainty about the past does not necessarily reduce any uncertainty about the future.
A good test of an explanatory claim is whether it accurately predicts outcomes instead of just explaining them after the event has happened. For example, have there ever been any humble leaders who were not successful? If so, humility would not accurately predict success, so there must be more to the story. The “humble leadership” key-to-success claim would fall apart.
The allure of ease
When a story is easy to absorb, easy to listen to, effortless to play along with, it can seem very right. Your personal experience of ease and pleasantness itself tags that experience with positivity—and makes it seem helpful, accurate, right. Psychologists refer to this as “fluency” (Oppenheimer, 2008).
It is easy to confuse fluency with value, or truth. A dynamic and polished guru with compelling stories can be likable, sound credible, and entertain us. When a speaker reveals a relatable human story with perfect timing, exciting narrative, and uplifting messages, even a bogus claim can seem right.
How to avoid a mistake: Hone your skills at separating feelings of fluency from the evaluation of the ideas, the claims, the proposals. Try to objectively recognize that if you really liked the presentation, the need to critically evaluate the evidence might be even more important. The reverse is also true: a boring presentation that is hard to understand might hide a truly valuable insight or two.
For more on the psychology of seeming right, we recommend checking out the references linked in this post.
Of course, having a research psychologist on staff can help any organization spot and combat bad claims that seem right.
The next time you hear a salesperson, a speaker on a stage, or an “expert” making a claim that just seems undeniably right, try to remember the three phenomena above. Charlatans understand them implicitly; even well-meaning, earnest people who truly believe their claims can unwittingly take advantage of them. If you can recognize them, you might save yourself some wasted time and money.
