Who Commits Political Violence?

On January 6, 2021, a group of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in Washington, D.C. Some of them chanted “Hang Mike Pence!” Others smashed windows and vandalized offices. Still others physically attacked and verbally abused police officers.

The rioters’ actions did not appear to be motivated by religious or economic concerns. They were primarily motivated by politics. They wanted to overturn the results of a fair and democratic election.

What kind of person commits political violence? To my knowledge, no one has constructed a full psychological profile of individuals who use violence for a political cause, but researchers in Denmark and the Netherlands have identified several variables that are consistently associated with a willingness to commit political violence.

Studies of Political Violence in Western and Non-Western Countries

Last year, political scientist Henrikas Bartusevičius and two colleagues published four studies that investigated the concomitants of political violence in Western and non-Western countries (Bartusevičius, van Leeuwen, & Petersen, 2020). The studies differed in their details, but all four used a similar methodology and arrived at similar conclusions. [1]

Participants in the studies came from 36 different nations and all walks of life. They completed a survey that measured two key variables: (1) democratic vs. autocratic political orientation and (2) self-reported use of violence (or willingness to use violence) for a political cause. Participants also provided information about basic demographic characteristics such as sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES).

Democratic governance is characterized by “equality in opportunities to compete for political power, and decision-making power is distributed among political actors on the basis of their popular vote rather than force” (Bartusevičius et al., 2020, p. 1512).

In contrast, autocratic governance is characterized by “political hierarchy, in which decision-making power is concentrated in the hands of a nonelected (or fraudulently elected) elite, who maintain power via intimidation and force” (Bartusevičius et al., 2020, p. 1512).

Two studies were conducted in African nations, where many citizens are familiar with autocratic governance. For these studies, the researchers constructed an Autocratic Orientation Scale (AOS). Individuals who score high on the AOS approve of hypothetical scenarios such as “Elections and parliament are abolished so that the president can decide everything” and “The army comes in to govern the country.”

The other studies were conducted in two Western countries where citizens are familiar with democratic governance. In the United States, the researchers again used the AOS. In Denmark, the researchers constructed an Autocratic Orientation Scale for Democracies (AOS-D). Individuals who score high on the AOS-D agree with statements such as “Public participation of the people is not necessary if decision making is left in the hands of a few trusted leaders.”

To measure the actual use of political violence, the researchers asked participants if they had used force or violence for a political cause in the past year. In the studies conducted in Africa, about 3 percent of participants said they had used violence for a political cause. In the U.S., the reported frequency was surprisingly high at 7 percent.

In Denmark, political violence is extremely rare, so the researchers measured willingness to use political violence by asking participants if they agreed or disagreed with the statement, “It is justifiable to use violence against the government.” Nearly 10 percent of Danish participants said they were willing to use political violence.

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Predictors of Political Violence

With these large data sets in hand, the researchers identified statistically significant predictors of a person's use of (or willingness to use) political violence. Age and sex were good predictors, with younger people and men more willing to use political violence. Somewhat surprisingly, one’s socioeconomic status (SES) was not a reliable predictor.

The best predictor by far was an autocratic political orientation. This result held true in all four studies. In the largest study—51,587 survey respondents in 34 African nations—individuals who favored autocratic governance were four times more likely than individuals who favored democratic governance to say they had used violence for a political cause.

In my mind, these findings raise an intriguing possibility. Maybe some of the Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol on January 6 did not actually care if Trump had won or lost the election. Perhaps they, or at least some of them, stormed the Capitol because, in their heart of hearts, they wanted the country to be governed by an all-powerful leader who represents their interests—and they were willing to fight for what they wanted.

[1] The first study used survey data from 51,587 respondents in 34 African nations. The remaining studies were conducted in Denmark (1,012 respondents), South Africa (2,170 respondents), and the United States (1,539 respondents). Each sample was representative (or nearly so) of the overall population.